Market Intelligence

What the federal record shows this week.

Notes and reports measured on the same federal contract record the platform runs on. Every figure is dated to the data release it came from, and every piece carries the query behind it. When a week has nothing worth reporting, we don’t publish one.

Sources: USASpending, FPDS, SAM.gov, GSA eLibrary. Refreshed monthly.

October 2026
September 2026
Market Note

3 in 10 Stand-Alone Federal Services Awards Drew One Offer

When a federal agency competed a new stand-alone services contract in FY2025, only one company bid 29.8% of the time. The share has barely moved in six years. It is highest in IT and R&D, lowest in construction and transportation, and it does not fall away on big contracts.

Data as of the 6 September 2026 federal data release

Ecosystem Report

Largest Federal Contract Awards, August 2026 (Civilian): $13.5 Billion Signed, as Homeland Security Runs at 3.8× Last Year

The monthly read of the federal contract record, as of the 6 September 2026 federal data release. Civilian agencies signed 136,119 new contracts and orders in August worth $13.5 billion at signing — about the same money as August 2025 (up 17% once recurring Veterans Affairs payment orders are set aside in both years), on 12% fewer awards, most of that difference in General Services Administration small orders. The fiscal year's larger movement sits at one department: Homeland Security's contract obligations are running at 3.8 times last year's pace. Defense figures in this issue stop at May, for a reason explained below.

Data as of the 6 September 2026 federal data release (USASpending / FPDS prime contracts)

Market Note

Small Business Share of Federal Prime Dollars, FY2026

Small businesses have drawn more federal contract money this fiscal year than in any comparable stretch of the last six years. Their share of the total is the lowest over the same six years. Both are true because everything else grew faster. Here is where the small-business money went, including how much went to SBA mentor-protégé joint ventures, where the mentor can be a large business: less than 1% of it, and about 4% for every joint venture we can identify.

Data as of the 6 September 2026 federal data release

Market Note

Federal Contract Labor Rates, FY2025

Every federal agency has to publish, contract by contract, how many contractor labor hours it bought and what it was invoiced against them. Almost nobody reads the file. Here is what it shows for FY2025 — starting with why the number everyone calls a labor rate is not one, which turns out to be the most useful thing about it.

Data as of the Service Contract Inventory FY2016–FY2025, acquisition.gov, as loaded 2026-08-06; figures re-verified 2026-09-15

Market Note

The Production Share of OTA Money Went From Zero to One Dollar in Nine

Other transaction authority exists so the government can build a prototype fast and then buy the working version without starting over. Whether that second half actually happens is the central argument about OTAs — and it is usually argued without numbers. Here is what a decade of the government's own Other Transaction record shows, including the three ways the obvious calculation gets it wrong.

Data as of the 2026-08-07 SAM.gov Other Transaction extract

August 2026